The head of the project: Vladimir N. Mikhalenko
The title of the project: Climate and environmental reconstructions over the last millennium from Mt. Elbrus ice cores in the Northern Caucasus and southern part of European Russia
Key words: Ice cores, climatic changes, high resolution reconstructions, glacier variations, climate models, Elbrus, radio-echo sounding
Summary
High-mountain paleoclimatic archives are catastrophically disappearing as a result of the intensive modern warming, degradation of glaciers, and the growing anthropogenic burden. In the framework of this project the North Caucasus ice cores will be obtained and stored in the paleoclimatic data repository, created for this purpose. One part of the archive will be stored for future research, whereas the other part will be analyzed employing modern analytical methods. The ice cores will be analyzed for the isotopic and chemical composition, the concentration of microparticles and black carbon with the following reconstruction of air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, atmospheric pollution, and regional volcanic activity based on that data. Climate models developed during the last decade are employed to gain understanding of the dynamics of climate over the last millennium. The newly obtained indirect paleoclimatic data for the North Caucasus will be compared with the results of the numerical climate modeling within the framework of PMIP3/CMIP5 programs. Climate variability will be analyzed for the last millennium, more specifically, it is expected to consider the pre-industrial period (1750-1900 AD) and the last 50 years separately based on the data of the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-INTERIM, CFSR reanalysis. Based on the comparison of simulation results for the selected time intervals we will obtain quantitative estimates of the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors to the climatic regional variability in the North Caucasus. The question of the precipitation genesis in the mountainous areas of North Caucasus will be examined separately. It is planned to carry out numerical simulation experiments to reproduce the meteorological regime for individual contrasting summers using a mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model WRF-ARW. The proportion of local and advective moisture in precipitation will be determined based on the analysis of model fields of moisture content, cloud cover, wind divergence, vorticity field, and precipitation field The assessment of the sensitivity of the model towards some key factors potentially having a strong impact on the regional climate (e.g. the surface temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic, as well as the Arctic sea ice) will be carried out. These effects will be studied in separate modeling experiments using the ECHAM5 global general circulation model of the atmosphere, that is characterized by high resolution. The major focus of the project will be on the study of warm periods and periods of "undisturbed" climate, which will allow to better understand and explain the magnitude of the modern warming, the retreat of the glaciers, the anthropogenic impact, and other related natural processes occurring in the North Caucasus at present. The only in Europe and in southern Russia glacial archive of paleoclimatic data, covering the last 2000 years, will be preserved and studied as a result of the implementation of this project. The data obtained over the course of this project will allow for the first time to precisely reconstruct the amount of precipitation, the composition of atmospheric aerosols, the repeatability of dry periods, the history of air pollution for the North Caucasus and the adjacent region.
The expected results
1. Unique ice cores will be obtained from the glaciers of Elbrus and Kazbek. The ice core storage facilities will be created for long term storage of ice cores for future generations of scientists when there will be new types of analysis available.
2. High resolution reconstruction of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric aerosol composition, volcanic activity, forest fires, atmospheric circulation and their connection with glaciers fluctuations.
3. Database of extreme and catastrophic events will be completed and its recurrence interval will be estimated for the task geographical forecasting. Analysis of the causes Krymsk flooding in 2012 showed that the lack of reliable data on the precipitation anomalies makes it impossible to forecast such events using statistical methods. In this regard, the proposed analysis of the characteristics of extreme climatic parameters in the past is very important.
4. A comprehensive reconstruction of environmental changes and climate to the south of the European part of Russia over the past millennium will be developed for the purpose of climate models validation. The main reason for the large uncertainties of climate models is the lack of information on changes of climatic characteristics in the past. Results of the project will significantly increase the number of available paleoclimatic data for this area.
Besides the great scientific importance of this project it has also a social significance. Russia will make a contribution to the International initiative for the conservation of glacial archives (“Protecting ice memory”). This initiative is supported by UNESCO. The main aim is to initiate a deep ice core drilling at the most promising in terms of paleoclimate reconstructions mountain glaciers, where there is a high of risk of losing paleoarchives due to climate warming. Our previous work has shown that Elbrus and Kazbek are just such sites. It sis of great importance to carry out ice core drilling projects before the continuing climate warming in the Caucasus has led to the disturbance of the climatic signal in the glacier due to melt water percolation.
All results will be published in a series of papers in Russian and international journals, including the monograph which will summarise the work on the project.