The head of the project: Aleksander N. Zolotokrylin
The title of the project: The impact of climate change on the life activity of the population in Russia ("areas with special climatic conditions")
Key words: climate change, extreme climate, natural environment, social environment, quality of life, the life activity of the population, zoning, discomfort, adaptation, bioclimatic indices, risk factors for health, recreation, population dynamics, population settlement
Summary
International and Russian studies on the impact of climate on human life and health are numerous and extensive. Against this background, the project explores the fundamental problem of spatial relationships between climatic conditions, taking into account their changes, and the characteristics of life activity of the population. Using geographical approach, the integrated impact of climate change and the transformation of social space on the lives of the population in different parts of Russia, especially in the areas with special climatic conditions, will be analyzed. From a scientific point of view, the relevance of the project is determined by its emphasis on the dynamic aspect of the role of climate and sociogeographical space, due to their current and predictable changes. In practical terms, the relevance is associated with the possibility to use the results for elaboration of federal subjects’ programs of socioeconomic development. Also, the results can be used for regulatory documents for providing labor resources in regions with extreme climatic conditions, i.e., the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the Far North (proposals for clarification of the areas with special climatic conditions). Scientific innovation of the proposed approach is determined by the interdisciplinary character research, which will be conducted within the framework of climatology, physical and social geography. Spatial interrelations between climatic conditions taking into account their changes and features of life activity of the population will be analyzed at two territorial levels: regional (zonal) and local – by federal subjects, areas with special climatic conditions, and municipalities.
The project will explore in detail those aspects of climate and sociogeographical space, which showed their importance for the life activity of the population in recent decades. The solution of a complex of the following tasks is planned. Addition of the system of indicators of natural and climatic factors of life fctivity, taking into account the impact of extreme climatic events (waves of heat and cold, extreme precipitation, sudden variations in temperature and pressure difference). Assessment of possible changes in transitional landscape zones in the areas with special climatic conditions. Estimation of ranges of change of thermal comfort index for the areas with special climatic conditions. Elaboration of the map "Zoning of Russia by natural and climatic conditions of life activity of the population" and maps of individual indicators included in the zoning, in increments of 0.5° × 0.5°, taking into account extreme climatic events. Analysis of a wide range of sociogeographical indicators of life activity (demographic, migration, socioeconomic, settlement pattern, ethnic, etc.), which can be associated with climatic conditions. Ordering of climatic and socioeconomic indicators by the degree of their impact on the life activity of the population by means of factor analysis. Identification of spatially differentiated features of the influence of the climate factor on the population settlement pattern: on the development of cities and rural settlements; their interaction, including the transport factor; features of the urban environment. Large-scale analysis of the role of climatic, economic, ethnic factors in the transformation of sociogeographical space by the example of local areas (municipalities, individual settlements). Taking into consideration the peculiarities of the population's perception of climate change (surveys, interviews).
The solution of these tasks of conjugate multiscale analysis of climatic and sociogeographical factors of life activity of the population and their changes will result in the development of integrated zoning by natural and climatic conditions for the areas with special climatic conditions, taking into account regional and intraregional features of sociogeographical space. Also, it is planned to create and publish an Atlas including maps developed within the framework of the project.
The expected results
1. Justification of criteria and indicators of climatic and social environment factors of life activity considering spatio-temporal scale of their impacts and consequences.
2. Creation of maps of distribution characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration) of large and dangerous climatic anomalies (pressure drops, temperature, precipitation) on the territory of Russia according to the observations and results of numerical experiments on models of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) of RAS and regional climate model of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO).
3. Classification of the most dangerous factors affecting the health, efficiency and adaptation of the population with the assessment of their consequences on the territory of Russia, and its regions under the modern climate and the expected anthropogenic warming.
Creation of multi-scale cards of consequences by means of GIS.
4. Using GIS assessment of resources and risks of social space of Russia on the background of a changing climate.
4. The creation of complex of updated multi-scale maps "Zoning of Russia by the natural conditions of life of the population" at the beginning of the XXI century and similar maps including scenarios of anthropogenic warming with the help of GIS.
5. Creating a map of areas with special climatic conditions suitable for leisure and recreation in different seasons for current and future climate.
7. Recommendations on the compliance of the application of social and state guarantees and compensations for persons working and living in the far North, equal to them districts, southern areas of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East's to the existing and future distribution of climatic factors, that complicate the population life activity.
The obtained results will allow to reveal the adverse factors for the life of the population in different regions of Russia, to develop measures of adaptation and mitigation of the negative impacts. Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the territory of Russia from the point of the impact of adverse natural and climatic factors on the person in conditions of current climate change and give an estimate for future climate change.
To develop recommendations on the compliance of the application of social and state guarantees and compensations for persons working and living in the far North, equal to them districts, southern areas of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East's. It is of great importance for planning of the development of new territories and resources fields, researching of mineral resources on the sea shelf and further development of the Northern sea route and Arctic.
As all these regions are the zones of extremely uncomfortable effects on humans, the determination of areas suitable for leisure and recreation will reduce the negative impact of the natural environment.
The present research corresponds to the world level in terms of the evaluation criteria of adverse impacts of nature and climate on human and modeling of future climate change. At the same time the method is unique because no country in the world experiences such a diversity of natural and climatic conditions, that have an adverse effects on humans over a vast territory.
